Economic News
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June 21, 2026
To the geniuses running Iran (I kid...), attempting to restrict the flow of energy out of the Strait of Hormuz works well in the short term. In the long term it will cause nations to choose other options.
Capital flows to where it is treated well. Iran is going to regret this. Take a look at two really interesting pieces on energy flows...
June 16, 2026
I generally like both Fox Business and CNBC. Each have their political tilt and it shows. The note that Wharton (Penn University) says the depletion of the Social Security System will be in the February of 2033 rather than the 4th quarter of 2032 really gives me comfort.
Our collapse is delayed by a few months. Thanks goodness. I thought we were in trouble.
Wake up America!!!
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/16/social-security-trust-funds-wharton-analysis.html
June 9, 2026
The Social Security Administration notes in a new report that the system will go into the red in the fourth quarter of 2032. That is about six years away. This is an economic disaster waiting to happen. We have all heard about this but absolutely nothing has been done for decades. Republicans are to blame. Democrats are to blame. Independents are to blame.
We made this mess. We will need to live with it.
Great piece from Fox Business.
November 2, 2024
In advance, a victory lap. It is said economists can make a living being wrong because nobody really understands what they are talking about. In this case, I nailed it. Take a look directly below. On October 4, I noted skepticism that job creation was so robust.
I was right.
Not only was October awful at 12,000 total jobs created, but the August and September numbers we were told were amazing were reduced by 112,000 combined. Strikes and hurricanes...always a reason they were so far off.
It is soft out there. Trust me. I see it 24/7 right now. The country is in or heading for a recession without a change in fiscal and monetary course.
October 4, 2024
In a total shocker with the election one month away, the monthly job numbers turn out to be a blowout. Way better than expected. Who would have thought?
This from the very same agency that overstated the twelve month run rate by over 30% or 818,800 jobs just a few weeks back.
I spend my day running our businesses and working with companies in the Great Lakes. It is noticeably slower on the ground. I could care less what people in cubicles in Washington D.C. say, the economy is weakening.
A summary at https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-job-growth-surges-september-unemployment-rate-falls-41-2024-10-04/
September 19, 2024
The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 50 basis points (.50% to most Americans). The prime rate is now 8.00% down from 8.50% prior.
Lower rates tend to stimulate borrowing and increase economic activity.
We are six weeks from an election. The Federal Reserve has a policy of remaining above politics. The problem is that cutting rates favors the incumbent. As a lifetime watcher of the Federal Reserve, I am profoundly disappointed.
The timing is really suspect. The country continues to hurtle toward a hyper-partisan vortex we may never recover from.
Really nicely done piece here.
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-september-2024
August 21, 2024
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics dramatically overstated the number of job created in the twelve months running April 2023 through March 2024. Total job creation was in fact 818,000 less than reported.
Economic growth is likely weaker than these very same people are telling us.
Nice summary here at https://nypost.com/2024/08/21/business/us-economy-created-818000-fewer-jobs-than-initially-reported/
August 15, 2024
Debt, debt, and more debt. Inflation runs faster than personal income so people begin to borrow to make up the difference.
A ticking time bomb.
April 27, 2024
Another one bites the dust!!!
Last night bank regulators seized Republic First Bancorp, based in Philadelphia. It has been in trouble for some time now. Time ran out last night. 32 branches with $6 billion in assets.
Higher interest rates and the unfolding commercial real estate meltdown are pressuring banks nationwide. See the "Bank Failures"section of this site to better understand how banks unravel.
This piece at the New York Post lays it out.
By the way, this is happening in an economy said to be healthy and expanding. I work with small and medium-sized businesses all day. We own a manufacturing business ourselves.
The economy is unquestionably slowing.